Trump’s Approach to COP29 and the Middle East: A Leadership Gap in the Muslim World

President in waiting, Donald Trump’s stance on climate policy, particularly regarding global conferences like COP29, underscores his broader philosophy on international alliances and American priorities. His views on climate align with his interest in maintaining close ties with oil-rich Middle Eastern nations, which is central to his vision for American energy dominance and strategic influence in the region. This perspective highlights his prioritisation of national interests and reflects his apparent disregard for the global movement towards climate action.

Trump’s “MAGA” Policy Leaves Little Room for Global Climate Commitments

A primary reason for Trump’s scepticism towards COP29 and similar international climate initiatives is his “MAGA” policy, which places US interests above those of other nations. Trump’s previous policies reveal a focus on cementing the US as a leading oil and gas producer rather than supporting a global transition to renewable energy. He sees fossil fuels as an area of economic advantage and a means of strengthening national security by reducing dependency on foreign energy sources.

While COP29 and other climate summits call for reductions in fossil fuel reliance, Trump believes that such measures could weaken the US economy and reduce American influence. In his view, lowering fossil fuel production to meet international commitments would only serve to compromise US self-sufficiency and, in turn, empower adversaries or competitors in the global energy market.

Dismissal of Climate Commitments as a Strategic Move to Protect US Interests

Trump’s rejection of climate agreements like COP29 is not solely ideological; it serves as a deliberate strategy to safeguard economic and political interests. His administration’s unwavering support for fossil fuels is a prominent example. Trump contends that moving away from fossil fuels threatens to destabilise the economies of both the US and its oil-rich allies in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

For instance, his administration’s backing of projects like the Keystone XL pipeline and expanded domestic drilling was not only about boosting the US economy but also about providing a buffer against reliance on foreign oil. In the Middle East, these policies have reinforced alliances with countries such as Saudi Arabia, as both the US and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on oil revenue. Trump’s support of fossil fuels aligns with the reluctance of these nations to pivot fully to renewables, as doing so would jeopardise their dominant position in global energy markets and reduce their political leverage.

Reinforcing Middle Eastern Alliances Through Fossil Fuel Dependence

Trump’s approach to climate policy also bolsters his broader strategy in the Middle East, where maintaining alliances with oil-rich nations is essential. His relationship with Saudi Arabia, for example, was built on mutual economic interests and regional stability. Trump’s disregard for international pressures to transition away from oil reflects his understanding that such a shift would weaken the economies of key allies like Saudi Arabia, whose wealth is largely dependent on oil exports.

While Saudi Arabia currently produces more oil than the US, Trump’s strategy ensures that this alliance remains strong, even if it comes at the cost of global “climate goals”. However, this approach raises questions about the potential imbalance of power in the region. The Saudi government has historically shown limited ambition in terms of political leadership; instead, it has invested in domestic projects centred around entertainment and tourism.

The Constraints of Middle Eastern Leadership in the Global Arena

Saudi Arabia’s economic power in oil grants it substantial leverage in the energy sector, yet its rulers have not aggressively pursued political leadership on the global stage. Instead, Saudi leadership has focused on domestic initiatives like Vision 2030, which aims to reduce the nation’s dependence on oil through diversification into areas such as entertainment and tourism. This strategy, while beneficial for internal economic goals, limits Saudi Arabia’s global influence beyond energy markets. Without strong political will or visionary leadership, Saudi Arabia’s ability to shape global affairs remains constrained by its own short-sightedness.

The potential within the Muslim world, and particularly among oil-rich nations, is significant if leadership in the region were to extend beyond economic interests. Middle Eastern nations possess not only vast energy resources but also a cultural and political presence that, with the right leadership, could redefine their roles in international politics. Middle Eastern leadership focused on long-term vision, beyond economic diversification into tourism and entertainment, could offer a more substantial voice in global decisions, including those concerning Gaza, Lebanon and Israel. However, as it stands, leaders in the region have not utilised this potential to advance influence on the world stage.

The Potential for a Unified Vision in the Muslim World

Trump’s stance on COP29 inadvertently brings into focus a greater possibility for the Muslim world. While his approach supports fossil fuel dependence and strengthens alliances with oil-rich Middle Eastern nations, it also underscores the limitations of these alliances. The Middle East’s focus on energy markets has, thus far, restrained the political ambitions of the region’s leaders. Without a unified vision that looks beyond economic interests in tourism and entertainment, Middle Eastern countries miss the opportunity to exert greater influence globally, changing the political landscape of not only the Middle East but the entire globe.

If Middle Eastern leadership could harness its resources and vision towards broader regional development and geopolitical leadership, the Muslim world could emerge as a significant player, not only in energy markets but in global politics as well. This would require a shift from short-term economic initiatives to a stronger commitment to addressing regional and global issues, including Gaza, US influence in the region and dealing with Israel. A commitment to these ideals would not only redefine the region’s standing in global affairs but could also position the Muslim world at the centre of the international stage.

Trump’s approach to climate policy and COP29 is deeply intertwined with his strategic interests in the Middle East. By prioritising fossil fuels, Trump strengthens alliances with key oil-producing nations, ensuring that the US maintains its influence in the region while disregarding climate commitments that he perceives as limiting American power. His “MAGA” doctrine leaves minimal room for global climate cooperation, emphasising his preference for alliances with Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich countries.

Trump’s stance also highlights a potential gap in Middle Eastern leadership. While countries like Saudi Arabia wield considerable power within the energy sector, their limited political ambition has thus far restricted their broader global influence. However, if a unified and visionary leadership were to emerge—such as a revived caliphate with cohesive political, economic, and strategic ambitions—it could radically shift the balance of global power. A caliphate, with its vast resources and deep cultural influence, could unify the Muslim world, enabling it to transcend short-term economic gains and assert itself as a serious global contender. In a world increasingly shaped by the demands of sustainable development and climate adaptation, such a transformation in Middle Eastern leadership would profoundly impact international dynamics, challenging current power structures and potentially redefining the global order.

If a leader like Trump can discern and act on climate issues such as COP29 to serve his nation’s interests, it highlights a stark contrast with the Arab rulers who fail to address pressing issues for the sake of their people. The Muslim world needs leadership that genuinely represents its populations and their aspirations rather than leadership that is imposed or overly influenced by external interests. True representative leadership, guided by a cohesive vision and commitment to the collective good, could unlock the region’s potential and offer a new and powerful voice on the world stage.