The United States: A Strategic Shift
Under the Trump administration, the United States’ approach to Syria underwent a marked shift. Washington refocused its efforts on disarming powerful groups such as Hezbollah, the PKK/PYD, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). At the same time, it sought to counterbalance Russia’s influence and isolate Iran. Strengthening Turkey’s role in the region and prioritising Israel’s security also became central to the U.S. strategy.
This recalibrated policy highlights a broader shift in America’s role in the Middle East. By empowering Turkey and addressing Syria’s internal challenges—such as the refugee crisis and the rise of extremist factions—the U.S. is attempting to steer the region towards a more balanced power dynamic.Russia: A Waning Influence
Russia’s intervention in Syria was pivotal in propping up the Assad regime, but its role now appears to be diminishing. Some analysts suggest that for Syria to achieve full normalisation, the Syrian government may need to declare Russia’s military presence redundant. Such a move would not only signal the end of Russia’s dominance in Syria but would also align with U.S. efforts to limit Moscow’s influence across the Middle East.
As global dynamics shift, including potential resolutions to the war in Ukraine, the prospect of Russia being pushed out of Syria appears increasingly plausible. This would represent a major geopolitical shift, further weakening Russia’s standing in the region.Iran and Hezbollah: A Decline in Power
Iran and its ally Hezbollah are also facing mounting challenges in Syria. Hezbollah, already weakened by losses in Lebanon, is now seen as a liability by many regional powers. Israel views the group’s continued presence in Syria as a direct threat, and a broader disarmament strategy could result in their expulsion from the country.
For this to happen, Syria’s government may need to publicly distance itself from Iran, signalling a shift in its international alignments. Such a development would further isolate Tehran and fundamentally alter Syria’s regional alliances.Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: A Push for Moderation
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once one of Syria’s most powerful militant groups, is undergoing significant transformation. While the group has struggled to maintain public support, recent efforts have boosted its credibility and strengthened its position in negotiations. However, HTS cannot persist in its current form.
To remain relevant, the group must shed its extremist image and adopt a more moderate stance. This transformation will likely involve disarming and transitioning into a political entity under Turkey’s influence. HTS’s territorial ambitions will likely be limited to areas such as Hama or Homs, with little possibility of extending its reach to Damascus. Its future lies in compromise and negotiation, rather than conflict.Turkey’s Role in Kurdish Relations
Turkey’s influence in the Syrian conflict is growing, particularly in relation to the Kurdish PYD. Recent reports suggest the possibility of cooperation between Turkey and the PYD, facilitated by Abdullah Öcalan, who remains a key figure among Syrian Kurds. This development could allow Turkey to address its long-standing concerns over the Kurdish issue while advancing broader peace efforts in the region.
Through Öcalan’s involvement, Turkey may secure greater cooperation from both the PYD and other Kurdish factions in Syria. This aligns with Ankara’s broader objectives of tackling terrorism and managing its domestic and regional Kurdish challenges.The Assad Regime: A Divisive Figure
The future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remains one of the most contentious issues in the conflict. His reliance on support from Russia and Iran, combined with his poor reputation, makes him a divisive figure in efforts to normalise Syria. Many view Assad as an obstacle to resolving the refugee crisis and achieving peace.
A growing possibility is a transitional process that excludes Assad. In this scenario, moderate figures within his regime could distance themselves from him, forming a temporary military council to oversee the transition. This council would preserve key state institutions, such as the military and intelligence services, while attributing past regime crimes to a small elite. The aim would be to create the appearance of change while maintaining stability.The Refugee Challenge
Even with progress towards peace, the full return of Syria’s millions of refugees is unlikely. Both Turkey and European countries see value in retaining refugees who contribute to their economies. However, those unable to integrate or involved in criminal activity could face repatriation.
Meanwhile, countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt are preparing frameworks for the organised return of Syrian refugees. While these efforts may relieve some of the burden on host nations, they are unlikely to address the full scale of the displacement crisis.The Ummah’s Plight
The Syrian revolution was unique among the uprisings of the Arab Spring. From its inception, the movement was deeply rooted in a desire for systemic change, rather than a mere exchange of leadership. Unlike other revolutions of the time, the Syrian uprising, particularly in areas like Dar’a, sought to establish governance based on the divine principles revealed by Allah (swt).
Despite the West’s tendency to label every faction as a militia or extremist group, it is essential to remember the voices of the Muslims in Syria who long for self-determination and a political system that aligns with their beliefs. These aspirations transcend simplistic categorisations and reject the imposition of foreign systems. The conflict, though tragic, serves as a testament to the resilience of a people striving for autonomy and dignity. It underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of Syria’s factions—not all actors fit neatly into pre-determined labels. Amongst the complexity lies a deeply rooted desire for an Islamic system that represents the will of the people, offering them the ability to define their own future free from external domination.Need Help?
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