GE 2024 & Gaza: A Misplaced Sense of Hope

As the general election approaches, Muslim candidates from mainstream parties and independent candidates are increasingly leveraging the Gaza issue to garner support from both Muslim and non-Muslim voters. While this strategy resonates with the community’s sentiments, it overlooks the inherent limitations of how much electoral outcomes can influence foreign policy. Here are five critical reasons why the “Gaza ticket” will not deliver the required change for Gaza.

1. The Iron Curtain of Foreign Policy

Foreign policy is an iron curtain, you can see what’s on show but no way you can see behind the scenes. Foreign policy is a domain defined by long-term commitments and strategic plans that often extend well beyond the typical electoral cycle. For instance, the United Kingdom’s permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The UK has held this position since the establishment of the UN in 1945, and it comes with significant responsibilities and long-term commitments to the international community. Regardless of changes in government or political leadership, the UK’s role in the UNSC requires it to engage in ongoing diplomatic efforts and uphold international agreements. This enduring commitment to the UNSC is a fundamental aspect of the UK’s foreign policy that transcends electoral cycles and individual administrations, ensuring continuity and stability in its international relations.

2. Face Changes, Policy Remains

The implementation and administration of foreign policy are primarily managed by career diplomats like David Cameron and civil servants like Sue Gray. For example, the UK’s foreign policy towards Israel has remained consistent despite changes in political leadership. While individual leaders might shift the focus or tone, the underlying policies, shaped by experienced diplomats, tend to stay the same to maintain stability and continuity.

3. Binding International Relations

Countries are often bound by international treaties and agreements that are not easily altered by a change in government. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, involved multiple nations and years of negotiation. Even when the U.S. administration under President Trump withdrew from the deal, rejoining or renegotiating it under President Biden proved complex and required extensive diplomatic efforts to restore trust and compliance.

4. Geopolitical Interests

A nation’s core strategic interests drive its foreign policy, and these interests tend to remain stable over time. China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a strategic effort to enhance global trade routes and strengthen its geopolitical influence. Regardless of internal political shifts, the BRI continues to be a priority because it aligns with China’s long-term strategic interests in expanding its economic and political influence worldwide.

5. Domestic vs. Foreign Policy

General elections are a powerful tool for shaping domestic policy, reflecting the electorate’s preferences on internal matters such as taxes, healthcare, and education. For instance, the UK’s abolition of the Poll Tax was directly influenced by electoral pressure and public protests. In contrast, foreign policy decisions, such as the UK’s involvement in the Iraq War or presently, to support the attack on Gaza are often driven by state interests and international alliances rather than direct voter preference, demonstrating the limited influence of general elections on such matters.

The idea of Israel was originally taken up by British foreign secretary Lord Palmerston from the 1840’s and resulted with the Balfour Declaration 1917 which was the culmination of geopolitical calculations where Britain had recognised a need for a sphere of influence in the region. This manoeuvring continued with Britain assisting the Zionists with training and weapons preparing the grounds for the war that would lead to the creation of the Israeli entity in 1948. Demonstrating how foreign policy is stable throughout party political changes and the need for this to be so. It is why to this day we see the UK maintaining its support for Israel as it justifies its involvement and allows it to have its malign influence in the region.

While leveraging the Gaza issue may seem like a potent campaign strategy, it is important for candidates and voters alike to understand the limitations of electoral influence on foreign policy. The “Gaza ticket” may win votes, but the realities of international relations, long-term commitments, and geopolitical interests mean that significant changes in foreign policy are unlikely to result from a change in government.

Editor of ReRun